It is clear to all that the Biden Administration and their Deep State allies are doing all they can to leave Trump a Gordian knot abroad. Their goal is to sow so much chaos that, like Alexander, Trump’s only option will be to brandish the sword and use military force. Syria is fallen, and the next target is Georgia.
Why is Georgia a target, how are they being targeted, and how will events likely unfold moving forward?
The Georgian Gamble: Rose Revolution 2.0
The US has long had eyes for the small Caucasian Republic of Georgia. The first attempt came in 2003 and was largely successful. The so-called Rose Revolution swept Mikhail Saakashvili to power. One year later, NATO admitted Estonia to the alliance and announced a new top priority: establishing partnerships with Caucasian and Central Asian Nations.1
Saakashvili got a little too cocky after Bush’s 2008 proclamation that Georgia and Ukraine were candidates for NATO membership. NATO held a small series of exercises in Georgia. Shortly after their departure, Saakashvili ordered the Georgian Army to retake the small breakaway territory of South Ossetia.2 The initial artillery bombardment killed multiple Russian peacekeepers, sparking the Russo-Georgian War.
Georgia was crushed, but contrary to the prevailing narrative about the conflict Russia did not install a new government. In fact, Georgia continued to drift towards the EU under (and after) Saakashvili. In 2012, Saakashvili lost reelection; a year later, credible allegations emerged of his widespread corruption and torture of political opponents. He fled shortly thereafter to the United States.
The Georgian Dream party, or Democratic Georgia (GD) came to power in the 2012 elections. While it has been dubbed by Western Intelligence as a pro-Russian or Russian puppet regime, this is not the case. GD still maintains claims over Georgia’s breakaway territories, has signed an EU association agreement, and has no diplomatic communications or ties to Russia. The reason they want to stall on EU membership is simple: joining the EU would obligate them to support Ukraine in the war and would likely lead to war with Russia. They don’t want to go to war with Russia.
The reasons for Western intelligence’s hatred of GD are twofold:
The Georgian people have rejected the Western Woke agenda. Georgia is an Orthodox country and very conservative. Western NGO’s, many of them directly founded and directed by the US State Department and CIA, have been pushing LGBT acceptance and gay marriage in Georgia. The Georgian people were, to put it lightly, not happy with this and took to the streets, shutting down pride parades and protesting against foreign interference.
The government has refused to sanction Russia and involve themselves in Western attempts to destroy Russia. This decision was immediately branded as collusion by Western media and activists employed by Western NGOs took to the streets to protest. There are thousands of US and EU sponsored NGOs across Georgia.
As a result, the Georgian Parliament drafted the Foreign Agent Registration Act. This bill would require any NGO which receives 20% or more of its funding from a foreign government to register as foreign agents with the Georgian government. It doesn’t prevent them from lobbying the government or organizing Georgians in support of political and social causes, it simply requires them to register once they hit the funding threshold.
Western media quickly dubbed this as an anti-Western bill, a Russian inspired law. Let’s be frank, this is only being called “anti-Western” because the West is funding a large number of NGOs in Georgia; if there were a bunch of Russian funded NGO’s in Tbilisi, the Atlanticists would be all about this bill. This also ignores the fact that the US has had similar laws, namely the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) since 1938. Not surprisingly these activists immediately took to the streets and engaged in widespread hooliganism, but these were quickly put down by the government. The law passed with little additional disturbance.
The State Department had hoped that the mass push against Georgian Dream over the Foreign Agent Registration Act and months of foreign sponsored propaganda would be enough to defeat GD in the October elections. But against the odds (if we are going to believe what the media says here in the US), Georgia Dream came out with 53% of the vote nationally. But it’s more important for us to look at how this plays out in terms of parliamentary seats, as this is a strong indicator of their support across Georgia - and not just in Tblisi where several hundred Western NGOs are headquartered. Georgian Dream now holds 89 of 150 seats in the Georgian Parialment. In other words, they are dominant and widely popular across Georgia.
Thus, attempts to foster protests were, again, short lived. But now that the Georgian government has announced the suspension of EU talks until 2028, the gloves are off - what the Deep State needs is a Georgian Maidan.
The Ukrainian Model
I say Maidan for two reasons.
First, all of the people now leading the CIA, State Department, USAID, etc… got their start in the Obama administration. Many were just starting their careers during the 2008 Russo-Georgian War and Middle Management by the time of the Syrian Civil War and First Donbass War. These are projects they’re spent their entire career working towards and, being afraid that they’ll be purged by the incoming Trump administration, they are trying to complete these career projects.
Secondly, the so-called “protestors” are mirroring the tactics used by the Banderites during the 2014 Maidan coup. They stage multiple days of stand-ins before launching violent attacks against police and using pyrotechnics to provoke the police into killing a protester. The hope is that by baiting the police into killing a protestor, the NGO media apparatus can claim an innocent, peaceful protestor has been killed by the heavy handed regime, validating their platform and galvanizing public support. Whether or not this will work when the Georgian people are becoming increasingly aware of the depravity of Western society, and more zealous for their faith, remains to be seen.
But people forget that Maidan was not the first color revolution in Ukraine; the first attempt was, ironically, during Yanukovic’s first term in 2004 and has become known as the Orange Revolution. The stalling of that attempt by a combination of maneuvering at home and beneficial trade incentives from Russia necessitated more aggressive measures - which we saw on the Maidan Square in 2014. So there is a clear pattern the State Department is using to topple regimes who place their own national interests over that of the hegemon.
The West is, of course, attacking the regime in Tbilisi for attempting to restore peace and good order, calling this anti-democratic. President Zelensky of Ukraine, comfortable with a large stash of US cash, has levied sanctions against Georgia and called on the US to do the same. Meanwhile, the US has been silent about events taking place simultaneously in one of its closest allies, South Korea. On December third, President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, accusing his political enemies (who hold a majority in parliament) of “anti-state activities,” sending heavily armed troops into the parliament building, suspending any and all governmental meetings and freedom of the press. The response from the US?… Crickets.
Georgian Grand Strategy
What Americans need to understand about Georgia is this: It has straddled the border of empire for the totality of its existence.The Romans and the Persians; The East Romans and the Arabs; the Turks and the Khazars; the Ottomans and the Russians: and today, Russia and the West. Georgia has, for the majority of its history, remained largely independent by knowing how to play the two sides off of one another, to extort concessions from both and pulling out of agreements at the last minute.
This government has largely done the same. But instead of accepting Georgia’s geopolitical reality, the West is sour that they are stalling for time, and want to install a puppet ruler to do their bidding and piss off Russia. It’s immoral, it’s wrong, and it may be the final straw which leads us to World War Three.
Pulling the Trigger
The real question is: what’s the next phase of the operation to topple Georgia Dream? What will be the catalyst for its downfall? The answer, just like Syria, is Ukraine.
The quick turn in the Syrian Civil War was caused by special forces operators of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), known as the Khimik Group. Considering the loadout and tactics of Ha’yat al-Sham’s elite operators during the campaign and how many have fought for Ukraine in the International Legion, I think this gives us an idea of what will happen in Georgia: Zelensky and Ukraine’s intelligence agencies will send the Georgian units of their armed forces to Georgia to lead the critical push needed to secure Georgia for NATO.
In 2014, eight Georgian veterans formed a militia, known as the Georgian National Legion (alternatively known as the Georgian Volunteer Corps) to fight in Donbass. If you’ve read part one of Road to War, you know that Mikhail Saakashvili wound up in Ukraine after the Maidan Coup as the Governor of Odessa. He encouraged Georgian veterans to come and continue the fight against Russia, swelling the ranks of the Georgian Legion.
Saakashvili later colluded with the Georgian Legion to return to Georgia and be swept into power. Unfortunately for him, he was detained hiding in the back of a milk truck trying to get into the country, charged with treason and thrown in prison. He has since tried to stage hunger strikes to keep his publicity going, but has been largely unsuccessful.
What I suspect is that, should the protests turn violent and reach critical mass in terms of popular support, Zelensky will send the Georgian National Legion to emerge from among the protestors and storm the Georgian parliament. Georgian Dream members who don’t flee abroad will be arrested and tried for treason. The US and EU are unlikely to give them asylum, hoping that their only option will be to seek asylum in Russia - thus validating the revolution and its claim of collusion. But what about Georgia’s current president, Salome Zourabichvili?
Well, she’s a NATO plan, so she’s sure to be fine.
The French President of Georgia
Zourabichvili was born in France, the daughter of political refugees. She joined the foreign services of France in the 1970s, taking increasingly senior positions until 2003 (the same year as the Rose Revolution) when she became the French Ambassador to Georgia. Just one year later, France and Georgia made an agreement by which she was granted Georgian citizenship and made their Foreign Minister…. Yup.
Zourabichvili should be fine because her term is up at the end of the year and, frankly, she’s a Westerner with no real care for Georgia outside of its integration with the West. She may be ethnically Georgian, but her soul is French. She has openly admitted that for most of her life, Georgia has been little more than “a mythical country, which only exists in books.”3 True, she was initially endorsed for president by Georgian Dream, but quickly revealed her allegiances upon her inauguration, and has even been out kicking police officers shouting “how dare you,” at them like a Karen. Most likely, parliament will be seized and the militants will call for new elections. Zourabichvili will likely pardon Saakashvili and he’ll be swept back into power. FARA and other key laws meant to secure Georgian sovereignty will be repealed and Georgia will be quickly admitted to the EU and NATO.
Potential Players & Consequences
The whole point of the West’s Georgian Gamble is to secure Georgia before Trump comes to power. If he manages to end the Ukraine War, that would allow Russia to react to any future attempt to admit Georgia to NATO. That Syria has fallen, and Russia was unable to help, only emboldens Zelensky and the Deep State to act. But Syria isn’t along the Russian border.
By comparison, Russia’s Southern Military District borders Georgia and as we saw in 2008 it doesn’t take long for them to mobilize and move through the Gori Pass. Sure, they are heavily engaged in Ukraine, but Russia has over 3,600,000 active duty troops, 12,000+ tanks, a powerful air force and hyper-sonic missiles. Furthermore, the Black Sea Fleet is currently moored in Novorossiysk, just north of the Georgian coast. It would take little effort to move south and strike at Batumi, or support a second attack through Abkhazia. In its current geopolitical circumstances, Russia would have little choice but to act.
The only other question, in my mind, is what will Georgia’s other neighbor do? Turkey has long been the regional adversary for Russia, but gone are the days in which Holy Rus’ seemed one campaign away from putting the Sick Man of Europe to rest.
While Turkey is irrelevant economically, its position on the map combined with its ties to the West and clever political maneuvering makes it a key player in the region. Turkey has been an essential strategic partner and convenient knife man for the US in the middle east, playing a key role in the fall of Syria - where they’ve long acted as a go between for US desire and money, and local jihadi factions.
They’ve also shown themselves very capable when it comes to hybrid warfare, largely through the use of its auxiliaries and drone technology. We covered this, particularly as it played out in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War previously in From Karabakh with Love. There is already a great deal of tension between Russia and Turkey as a result of the latter’s closure of the Bosporus Straits4, which, combined with the loss of the Russian Naval Base in Tartus, Syria, prevents Russia from projecting power in the Mediterranean.
Turkey’s increasingly bold and antagonistic actions, their close ties with Azerbaijan, and hope to build upon the Turkish Crescent (the uniting of the Turkic peoples stretching from the Bosphorus to Bishkek), creates an additional layer of challenges for Russia to consider in answering the Georgian question. Would Turkey and Azerbaijan attempt to intervene in any Russian response to a Georgian Maidan? Could this be the catalyst by which Russia and Turkey go to war, launching the Third World War, as St. Paisios predicted? It remains to be seen, but it’s easy to imagine NATO would pressure them to get involved - especially if NATO promises to recognize Azeri claims to Armenian lands and the establishment of the land bridge between the two Turkish states at Armenia’s expense.
Conclusion
Turkish involvement is not certain, but is plausible. But I certainly think we can bet money on Zelensky’s involvement in the downfall of Georgian sovereignty. The US and NATO have had their eyes set on Georgia and Ukraine for twenty plus years and are not going to let Trump get in their way if they can help it. Ukraine is quickly becoming Washington’s knife man; the SBU and HUR are the perfect mechanism of action because it gives the US plausible deniability. Time will tell. But what is becoming crystal clear is that Fr. Seraphim Rose was correct, it is later than we think.
We have covered these events fairly in depth in Ukraine: Road to War, Part I, as they were important in the decline of Russo-Occidental relations. If you are newer to these topics, the Road to War series will be very helpful.
South Ossetia is a breakaway territory in northern Georgia. The Ossetian people straddle the Russo-Georgian border, upon the break-up of the Soviet Union, they rebelled against Georgia - along with a couple other ethno-religious minorities on the periphery of Georgia. When these conflits froze, Russia acted as a mediator and enforcer of the treaty, stationing a small peacekeeping force in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the northwest of Georgia.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/06/04/a-georgian-reborn-still-straddling-two-cultures/a5d37ba3-3c97-463d-9d56-c939107d3d14/
Decades ago, St. Paisios of Mt. Athos predicted that Turkey would close the Bosphorus Straits to Russia, and this would be the sign by which we would know the Third World War was upon us. As events progress, this becomes increasingly plausible.