Ukraine and Terrorism: Coincidence, or collaboration?

Is Ukraine engaged in terrorism, and were they involved in the attack on Moscow?

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The tragic attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow is the third deadliest attack on Russian civilians in modern Russian history. While the Islamic State (IS) has taken responsibility for the attack a number of strange circumstances, connections, and inconsistencies have led many to believe Ukraine ordered the attack. While Western governments and media agencies have fiercely denied this, it wouldn’t be the first time they have claimed Ukraine was not involved, only later to quietly admit the Ukrainians were, in fact, involved in terroristic acts.

Inconsistencies

Attacks from IS militants are not new to the West, which makes the anomalies in this attack even more apparent. The attackers were working on a strict timetable. They understood the response time for Russian Special Forces operators and were able to flee the scene before they arrived. To successfully launch such an organized operation on a strict timetable requires a high level of training, discipline, and resources uncharacteristic of IS - especially this particular IS group.

This type of information is highly sensitive. To obtain it one would either need someone internally placed, privy to Russian internal security procedures and emergency response protocols, or you would need to be a part of a foreign intelligence operation with access to the types of contacts and money which would allow one to access such information.

A few Tajiks from a financially destitute terror cell deep in the mountains of Afghanistan simply couldn’t access that information without outside help.

In addition to planning and carrying out a fairly complex attack on a facility deep in a foreign country, these militants chose to flee instead of dying as martyrs. As we all know, when IS terrorists launch an attack, their reward is a martyric death and Paradise, not cash. They were caught fleeing the scene and we now know that they were paid for the attack in the amount of 500,000 rubles - half up front, half after the operation.

Where they chose to flee is also of interest: Ukraine.

Geolocation has confirmed that they were arrested just south of Bryansk along the M3 highway. This is a major road which runs from Moscow to Kiev. While some have tried to claim they were heading to Belarus, there was no way to reach Belarus on the route they had chosen; they would have had to turn at Bryansk - which they did not. If they wanted to flee towards a more heavily Muslim region, or towards Central Asia, they could not do so on this road. They could only go to Ukraine on the M3… One would assume that men capable of carrying out such an attack and fleeing prior to a Russian response, knew their escape plan well.

Why Ukraine?

That’s the real question. Considering the Russo-Ukrainian border is locked down like Fort Knox on account of the war - especially since Ukraine has been launching small cross border raids in Belgorod for PR - it stands to reason that the only way they could get through the border was if it were prearranged by, say, the SBU.

It seems strange that after years of near silence, Islamic State would reemerge to attack not one, but two enemies of the United States - the Great Satan. This is only further reinforced by the fact that Islamic State - Khorosan, or IS-K (the cell allegedly responsible) has made multiple public calls for Muslims to avoid involving themselves in this “crusader on crusader war,” and instead let the enemies of Islam kill one another.¹

This call was seemingly necessary since many Islamists from Syria have joined up to fight for Ukraine. Many of these fighters formerly fought for Al-Qaida and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Islamic State, and Ajnad al-Kavkaz. Since arriving in March of 2022, these fighters have formed an integral part of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion. Unfortunately, the free world has ignored the alarms raised by the FSB about the transfer of ISIS fighters to the AFU.

The SBU also has direct access to multiple Islamic State Commanders living in Ukraine. One was even able to be released from SBU custody (by a bribe) to avoid an Interpol issued warrant for extradition to Moscow. The SBU allowed the IS commander to instead travel to Georgia. This is all the more relevant since it was not IS-K who took responsibility for the attack, but IS central, in Syria. Islamic State in Syria are the ones claiming it was IS-K who carried out the attack. Islamic State in Syria is who the SBU would have direct contact with through commanders hiding in Ukraine, and through fighters in their ranks.²

So why implement IS-K? Just to say it was a late payback for the Soviet-Afghan War? Not exactly...

The four captured terrorists were Tajiks. IS-K operates in areas with a large Tajik population and is allied with the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan. The two have had membership crossover for years, with both being implicated in the killing of Western cyclists in Tajikistan in 2018. ³

This is where things start to get interesting.

The Tajik Connection

The headquarters of the Islamic Renaissance Party is believed to be in London, where its exiled leader, Muhiddin Kabiri, is believed to be in hiding since receiving asylum. In spite of being in hiding while on the interpol wanted list, Radio Free Europe - a US Govt. run agency with close ties to US intelligence - gained easy access to him for a glowing article.

So why give him cover? The Islamic Renaissance Party was closely tied to the Afghan Northern Alliance and the Afghan government which came to power after the US Operation Anaconda which kicked off the War in Afghanistan. They have been useful to American and British Intelligence, and you never know when they may be helpful again.

Welcome to the wacky world of spycraft.

In 2018, the British and Polish governments helped facilitate the formation of the National Alliance of Tajikistan (PMT), in Warsaw. The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan was one of the four groups who came under the PMT umbrella. The Tajik government immediately declared the PMT a terrorist organization, and Radio Free Europe was equally quick in providing them cover.⁴

The Missing Link

In late October Ilya Ponomarev, the commander and political leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps (the group who has been launching infiltration attacks on Belgorod and other border settlements) met with Muhiddin Kabiri in London. He has made frequent trips since the collapse of the Ukrainian counter offensive to both London and Warsaw - the two headquarters of the Islamic State affiliated Islamic Renaissance Party.

Why does this matter?

That Ukraine would send two highly motivated, well-trained groups of Russian partisans to launch fruitless incursions on the Belgorod border when the front is collapsing in Donetsk and receding on all other fronts, makes absolutely no sense. Sure, the AFU has launched small operations (Krinky anyone?) to gain positive PR before… But the front wasn’t collapsing then, Russia wasn’t advancing on all fronts. It is flat out stupid to waste those resources…

Unless you were using that as a diversion to force local opposition forces to respond, opening up a corridor by which to retrieve allied personnel crossing the Russian border.

This may sound like a stretch, and maybe it is.. but here’s what we know:

• We know that multiple battalions of former Islamic State and IS allied fighters are currently enlisted in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

• We know that multiple Islamic State commanders live in Ukraine.

• We know that Mi6 and the CIA have worked with and provide cover for the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan and PMT; all CIA/Mi6 contacts have been opened up for SBU use.

• We know that the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan is an open ally of IS-K and membership between the two organizations is fluid.

• We know that the commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps, Ilya Ponomarev, traveled repeatedly to London and Warsaw, meeting with leadership of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan and PMT between October 2023 and March 2024.

• We know is that the SBU and Russian Volunteer Corps have launched terrorist attack in Moscow before, often with Ponomarev taking credit.⁵

Ponomarev as Fall-man

Ponomarev has claimed to be behind the killing of Darya Dugina, daughter of Alexander Dugin, a former Putin ally; the killing of Vladlen Tatarsky, a prominent Russian war blogger; the novelist Zakhar Prilepin, and claims to be behind numerous drone strikes on Moscow. The problem is that the Russian Volunteer Corps doesn’t have the capabilities to pull off such an attack.

Obviously, they could obtain the materials themselves from the SBU, who’ve likely used Ponomarev as a front man to build up a network of informants and stash houses. But materials aren’t enough to pull off the attacks they’ve supposedly carried out. Clandestine operations are not something you just up and decide to do - and do successfully. It takes a tremendous level of networking, financing, training, preparation, etc…Only the SBU has such capabilities.

Even then, the SBU only has those capabilities after years of close partnership, training, and interoperation with the CIA and Mi6. SBU commanders have, on camera, admitted to being behind these same attacks. Clearly Ponomarev is willing to be the face of SBU terror.

Allowing the Russian Volunteer Corps to take the blame for these terrorist attacks allows the SBU to carry out its agenda with a level of plausible deniability. But in the case of the Crocus Music Hall attack, even the RVC wouldn’t want to be associated with such a heinous act. It would have been absolutely necessary to bring in an outside group.

And with buckets of US taxpayer dollars at the SBU’s fingertips, Ponomarev would serve as the perfect go between necessary to pay the Tajik gunmen.

If things get too hot and the West has to roll on someone, they can point the finger at Ponomarev and claim the Ukrainian government had no direct involvement, just as they did with the Nordstream 2 Pipeline.

Motivations

Clearly things are not going well for Ukraine. Even Western media has had to admit that they’re in big trouble and US politicians are less and less willing to shell out billions of dollars for a lost cause. For Ukraine to keep fighting, they either need direct NATO involvement or more weapons - which the US isn’t wanting to give. What Ukraine really needs, is to show that they are still able to fight, and that Putin’s Russia isn’t as strong as it clearly is. That’s why they’ve been launching these fruitless PR campaigns such as the attacks on Krinky, Belgorod and the Black Sea Fleet.

The fact of the matter is that the West always knew Ukraine couldn’t win on the battlefield. Their hope has always been that by dragging out the war, by crippling the Russian economy, by making Putin look weak, he could be overthrown. If the flow of cash and weapons cease, so does that hope of Russian collapse.

The problem is that it hasn’t worked. For one, Russians are resilient, and they remember that it was Vladimir Putin who brought them out of the chaos, destitution and desperation of the 1990s. We assume, as we always do, that inside every Russian is an American dying to get out. But in their minds, their civilization is in a life-or-death struggle with the West. That’s not a time to abandon the ship’s captain, and they certainly won’t abandon Putin for a Western puppet like Ponomarev.

Most Americans fail to realize (thanks to our notoriously short memory and attention span) that very day Russians lost all trust in the West during the Kosovo conflict, when we were willing to start a nuclear war with Russia instead of abiding by the treaty terms which we ourselves set.

In the eyes of the West, a major terrorist attack on Moscow makes Putin look weak and could precipitate a coup among the elites. It makes it appear that his foreign policy decisions are reckless and costing Russian lives at home. As Western headlines are saying with glee, “Putin is realizing he’s been fighting the wrong war.”

Alternatively, it could force the Russian military to divert some forces to go on a revenge tour through Central Asia. This could slow down progress in Ukraine and, in time, break the Russian Army and economy as ever more resources are pushed towards a second conflict zone.

That such a major psychological blow could be dealt to the Russian people and state for what amounts to pennies in the larger scheme of things, and such low risk on the part of Ukraine and the West, the motivations are obvious.

Now sure, none of us want to believe our governments are capable of such things, but we know they are. Let’s not forget the numerous plans the CIA has drawn up to carry out a terrorist attack on US soil to justify a foreign conflict. All of our allies have done the same - as have the Russian authorities, to be fair.

Hybrid Warfare

The 21st century has ushered in a new era of warfare. It’s not that clandestine operations or training jihadis is unique to the 21st century (let’s not forget how al-Qaida got its start), but the pace of international relations, conflicts, and the media cycle in the age of the internet have forced much more fluidity in the clandestine sphere. Someone who is an enemy one day may be a necessary ally the next. We’ve seen this in Iraq and Syria.

US troops were fighting al-Qaida in Iraq (known as Islamic State in Iraq) in 2009, by 2012 we were funding, training, and even directing their operations in Syria. When they then burst through the Iraqi desert and conquered half the nation, allegiances flipped again. But once their “Caliph” al-Baghdadi had been killed, we helped roll many of those same fighters into the “Free Syrian Army,” which was almost entirely comprised of fighters from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and again provided weapons and cash to fight Bashar Assad, Hezbollah, and PMC Wagner.⁶

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham was formerly known as the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaida’s main affiliate in Syria. It is precisely these men who now make up multiple battalions of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion.

Shout out to the late Senator John McCain for his hard work...

The Plot

With the war not going their way and Putin racking up wins at home and abroad, the SBU wanted to strike a serious blow to the Russian people. Doing so directly would only galvanize Russian support for the war in Ukraine, who may call for all-out war. There are two possible ways this could have happened:

The SBU and Western Intelligence (likely Mi6) hatched a scheme to use an Islamic terrorist organization to strike Moscow. To further distance themselves from the attack, they used Ilya Ponomarev as an intermediary.

Scenario One

In scenario one, an Mi6 asset sets up a meeting between Ponomarev and their Tajik allies in the Islamic Renaissance Party on one of his first trips to the UK in late October. Ponomarev provides them with detailed intelligence (given to him by the SBU and Mi6) stating that “his network” in Russia can provide the fighters with weapons in country, and his people will get them cross the Ukrainian border safely afterwards, where they will be paid. They will be paid 500,000 rubles for the attack, half up front, half when they cross the border. Perhaps they could be offered enlistment in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion (the salary being significantly higher than IS-K salaries) and able to start a new life in Ukraine.

Now, the CIA warned Russia of an impending attack on Moscow, likely at a concert. It’s possible that, if this was what happened, the SBU had gone rogue and the CIA, unable to stop the attack, warned Russia to further distance themselves from the attack.

Scenario Two

In scenario two, the CIA (who has worked closest with the SBU) worked with the Ukrainians to use their organic contacts in country. They could just pick up one of these ISIS commanders from Syria off the street and strong arm him into running the operation. In this case, Tajik fighters who had come to Syria from Afghanistan were enlisted, and this is the IS-K connection. These could be guys currently enlisted in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion, or some guys still in Syria who the ISIS commander tapped from his contacts in country. Ponomarev could still act as point man to add another layer of deniability, or he could have just been tapped to assist the border crossing. Either way, the same information and assets offered in scenario one, are offered in this scenario.

In this scenario, the CIA warned Russia simply to cover its rear end. In either scenario, ISIS carried out an attack on behalf of a Ukrainian intelligence asset, potentially at the behest of American or British intelligence. The Russians are convinced this is the case. We, unfortunately, cannot rule it out.

Conclusion

The Russians are convinced that while Islamic State carried out the attack on the Crocus City Hall, they were not the ones who ordered it. A number of inconsistencies in the attack and strange connections only reinforce their claims, and we cannot rule it out for the time being.

What we do know is that the Ukrainians have been behind a number of terrorist attacks since the start of the war, the same time span in which they’ve worked hand in hand with the CIA and Mi6. From blowing up pipelines, philosophers, authors, and bloggers, possibly even their own hydroelectric dam, the Ukrainians have shown there is no length they’re not willing to go. Unfortunately, our own government has shown it is not afraid to cover for the Ukrainians when they do. We are in an age of asymmetrical warfare in which no asset is off the table, and the manipulation of the public is simply a tool of the trade.

Disclaimer: I am not in any way, shape, or form suicidal, and am 100% stone cold sober. If I happen to shoot myself in the back of the head 16 times or am found with enough fentanyl in my blood to kill an elephant, you know one of the above scenarios was correct.

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1. If one were going to launch an Islamist attack on Western decadence, it stands to reason you would attack the ever more aggressively pro-LGBTQP nation beating the drum for Israel, not the nation outlawing open LGBTQP expression, supporting Palestine and working with Muslims both at home and abroad. To believe this is somehow revenge for the 1980’s Soviet-Afghan War (which Ukraine was just as involved in, mind you) is just goofy.

2. Let’s not forget that it was the CIA and Mi6 who helped train and fund Islamic State to begin with, and who has been tracking their commanders’ movements for years. To think that they do not have informants and double agents in IS would be ignorant.

3. Were the American cyclists killed in Tajikistan naive for traveling there? - The Washington Post

4. The government of Tajikistan is brutally repressive dictatorship, to be clear. But that doesn’t mean everything they say is nonsense. The Islamic Rennaissance Party is a terrorist organization, and the autonomous region along the Tajik border with Afghanistan has been a terrorist recruiting ground for decades now. Tajik fighters in Northern Afghanistan were largely anti-Taliban and part of the Northern Alliance which US Special Forces used to liberate the country. Because of this, they have gained US support and cover from US media. This benefits the US and NATO by destabilizing a Russian ally in Central Asia, where NATO has been seeking to expand since 2009.

5. Ponomarev has claimed to be behind the killing of Darya Dugina, daughter of Alexander Dugin, a former Putin ally; for the killing of Vladlen Tatarsky, a prominent Russian war blogger; the novelist Zakhar Prilepin, and numerous drone strikes on Moscow. The problem is that the Russian Volunteer Corps doesn’t have the capabilities to pull off such an attack. Obvously they could obtain the materials from SBU sources - who likely used Ponamarev as a front man in Russia to build up its network of informants and stash houses - but only the SBU has such capabilities (thanks largely to their close partnership, training, and interoperation with the CIA and Mi6).

Allowing the Russian Volunteer Corps to take the blame for these terrorist attacks allows the SBU a level of plausible deniability. In the case of the Crocus Music Hall attack, even the RVC wouldn’t want to be associated with such an act. It was absolutely necessary to bring in an outside group. With buckets of US taxpayer dollars at the SBU’s fingertips, Ponomarev could certainly gather the 500,000 rubles necessary to pay the Tajik gunmen.

US knew Ukraine blowing up Nordstream Darya Dugina

6. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has also been known as Jabhat Al-Nusra, Jabhat Al-Shamiya, among others. The Free Syrian Army was originally comprised mostly of moderate commanders of Syrian Army units which defected. But as they took casualties they were forced to ally with jihadi groups. In time, these Jihadi groups systematically purged the organization of moderates.